Strong economic expansion in Guyana is set to drive growth in the English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean in 2026, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) said on Tuesday, even as it slightly lowered its overall regional forecast.
The subregion is projected to grow by 5.6 per cent this year, just above the 5.5 per cent recorded in 2025, largely reflecting robust growth in Guyana. Excluding Guyana, growth would slow sharply to about 1.2 per cent, compared with 2.0 per cent last year, ECLAC said.
Across Latin America and the Caribbean, economies are expected to expand by an average of 2.2 per cent in 2026, down from a 2.3 per cent estimate in December, as a more challenging global environment weighs on activity.
ECLAC said rising geopolitical tensions, including conflict in the Middle East, tighter financial conditions and renewed inflationary pressures have contributed to the downgrade.
Oil prices have surged, with the average price in the first three weeks of April about 74 per cent higher than in December 2025, increasing production and transport costs.
Higher global food prices and slower growth in key trading partners such as the euro area, China and India have also dampened the outlook.
The World Trade Organization forecasts global trade growth of 2.7 per cent in 2026, down from 4.7 per cent in 2025.
At domestic level, weaker private consumption is expected to constrain growth, while investment remains moderate despite signs of recovery.
Employment across the region is projected to grow by about 1.1 per cent in 2026, compared with 1.5 per cent in 2025, while median inflation is expected to rise above 3 per cent, up from 2.4 per cent last year.
Subregionally, South America is forecast to grow by 2.4 per cent in 2026, down from 2.9 per cent in 2025, while Central America is expected to expand by 2.2 per cent, slightly below last year’s 2.3 per cent.
ECLAC warned that risks remain tilted to the downside, including persistent inflationary pressures, volatile financial markets and weak domestic demand, alongside structural challenges such as limited policy space and vulnerability to external shocks.
The commission said boosting investment, productivity and economic resilience will be key to strengthening the region’s long-term growth prospects.
