Available indicators show no clear signs of overheating or competitiveness pressures in the economy, though strong wage growth warrants close monitoring, the International Monetary Fund said.

The IMF Executive Board made the assessment as it concluded the 2026 Article IV Consultation with Guyana. It said wage-based real exchange rate measures also call for close monitoring and described prudent macroeconomic policies as continuing to support strong growth.

Real GDP grew by over 19 per cent in 2025, following average growth of nearly 40 per cent during 2023–24. Oil production exceeded expectations, while non-oil growth remained robust. Construction led, supported by agriculture, mining and manufacturing. Labour market conditions improved and credit growth stayed strong.

Inflation remained contained in 2025 but picked up by mid-2026, reflecting higher global energy and food prices. The IMF said monetary operations helped contain liquidity and exchange rate pressures, while fiscal and supply-side measures cushioned near-term price pressures.

The overall fiscal deficit narrowed by nearly two percentage points to 5.5 per cent of GDP in 2025, reflecting strong oil revenue while large public investment continued. Rising oil production and a decline in oil-related service imports strengthened the external position. The IMF assessed it as broadly in line with the level implied by fundamentals and desirable policies in 2025.

The IMF said the Government's development strategy appropriately emphasises diversification, resilience and sustainability. It noted that buffers are being built through rapid accumulation in the Natural Resource Fund and one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the Western Hemisphere. Large public investments in physical and human capital are supporting non-oil growth and social outcomes.

The outlook remains highly favourable amid broadly balanced risks. Oil production is expected to keep expanding, and non-oil growth is projected to average about 7 per cent over the medium term. The IMF said external and fiscal positions should strengthen as new oil fields come onstream.

Upside risks include further oil discoveries, stronger construction and higher oil prices. Downside risks include oil price volatility, overheating pressures and climate shocks.