Oct 5, 2026
5 min read
Right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro has won the first round of Brazil's presidential election, beating left-wing President Lula da Silva but falling short of an outright majority.
The two will meet in a run-off on October 25.
Bolsonaro is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for masterminding a failed coup after losing the 2022 election.
Sunday's vote was close, with Lula polling slightly ahead during the campaign. With almost all votes counted, Bolsonaro has 47 per cent to Lula's 45 per cent.
The result exceeded expectations and makes the second round look like his to lose, as some of the eliminated candidates were right-wing alternatives.
Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) also won the most governorships, Senate seats and federal deputy seats so far, and is expected to hold the most influence in Congress.
Most of Latin America has now elected right-wing presidents aligned with the Trump administration. The run-off will determine whether Brazil, the region's largest country and economy, follows suit.
After casting his ballot, Lula, 80, warned the choice was between democracy and "barbarism". Bolsonaro, 45, said he wanted to "free the Brazilian people".
The campaign has polarised Brazil again, with sovereignty, crime, the economy and corruption the top concerns for voters.
Lula is more popular in the poorer northeast and among low-income voters, Catholics and women. He is seeking a fourth term after winning in 2002, 2006 and 2022. In 2022, he beat Jair Bolsonaro by less than 2 per cent, the closest result in Brazil's history. Afterwards, Bolsonaro's supporters vandalised government buildings on January 8, 2023.
Jair Bolsonaro was barred from running even before his imprisonment and endorsed his eldest son Flávio in his place. His wife, Michelle, was elected to the Senate on Sunday.
Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged amnesty for his father and for supporters responsible for the January 8 riots if elected. He is more popular in the south and among wealthier voters and evangelical Christians.
Bolsonaro said on Sunday he was confident of winning the run-off.
"I am very happy with the real possibility that, three weeks from now, Brazil will give a definitive answer by choosing a modern government," he said, according to AFP.
Lula called the outcome "unexpected" but insisted the race was not over.
"I admit I was convinced I would win in the first round," he said. "The game is about to start. We are in extra time. In extra time, we will win over the Brazilian people."
US relations
The president of Brazil's Supreme Electoral Court said on Sunday that no evidence of international interference was found in the election.
Lula made "sovereignty" a key pillar of his campaign and at times accused the US of trying to influence the vote, which Washington denies.
Earlier this year, Bolsonaro successfully lobbied the US to designate Brazil's two biggest gangs as terrorist organisations. Last year, President Donald Trump cited Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial to justify tariffs on Brazil and sanctions on some top officials and judges.
A Flávio Bolsonaro win would likely see Brazil join the US "Shield of Americas" coalition against narco-trafficking and align more closely with Washington.
Key Campaign Issues
Corruption became a key issue after a scandal involving jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro, who orchestrated one of Brazil's largest financial frauds and embroiled senior figures across the political spectrum.
Bolsonaro acknowledged asking Vorcaro to bankroll a biopic about his father after voice recordings emerged in which he could be heard requesting 134 million reais ($25.9m; £19.5m).
Lula was affected indirectly after police suggested Vorcaro had asked Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes for help avoiding arrest. Moraes denies wrongdoing. Lula did not appoint him, but he is seen as an ally because he presided over Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial.
Crime and insecurity were also top concerns. Brazil's homicide rate has fallen, but highly visible street crime such as phone theft has risen, and violence and drug trafficking remain major problems.
Bolsonaro has pledged to designate Brazilian gangs as terrorists and build maximum-security prisons like those in El Salvador. His father loosened gun ownership restrictions as president.
Lula has criticised the US terrorist designation but launched reforms to tackle organised crime's financial networks, improve homicide investigations and invest in prisons.
The economy has also been central, with high personal debt and slowing growth.
Lula has defined his legacy through social welfare programmes, most notably Bolsa Família, which pays families to keep children in school and get healthcare such as vaccines. He has also built more universities, and the programmes have been credited with lifting millions out of poverty.
He has backed oil exploration, which environmentalists criticise, but has tightened environmental protections and reduced Amazon deforestation, which rose significantly under Jair Bolsonaro.
Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged a public debt ceiling, government spending cuts, a revision of social welfare and support for the critical minerals sector. (BBC News)
