Prudent policy management has helped drive Guyana’s rapid economic growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its latest Article IV assessment, pointing to falling unemployment, a narrowing fiscal deficit and surging oil output as evidence of sustained macroeconomic strength.
Real GDP grew by over 19 per cent in 2025, following average growth of nearly 40 per cent during 2023-24. Oil production surpassed 900,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025, a 35 per cent increase over one year, with similar volumes recorded in the first half of 2026. Non-oil growth continued at about 14 per cent, led by construction, with agriculture, mining and manufacturing also contributing. Some sectors were affected by heavy rainfall in the first half of 2026.
Unemployment fell to 6.2 per cent by the end of 2025, while average inflation was contained to 3.3 per cent that year but edged up by mid-2026 amid higher global energy and food prices.
The fiscal deficit narrowed by nearly two percentage points to 5.5 per cent of GDP in 2025, as oil revenue offset a decline in non-oil revenue despite continued large public investment. Strong foreign exchange demand from import-heavy private investment kept the FX market tight, though rising oil production and falling oil-related service imports strengthened the external position, which the IMF assessed as broadly in line with fundamentals.
The Fund credited the government’s five-year development plan, built on the Low Carbon Development Strategy 2030, with maintaining a focus on diversification, resilience and sustainability. Continued accumulation of oil revenue in the Natural Resource Fund is helping build fiscal and external buffers, it said, while tight monetary conditions and fiscal measures have supported price and exchange rate stability.
The IMF found no clear signs of overheating, though it flagged strong wage growth and wage-based real exchange rate indicators as warranting close monitoring.
Looking ahead, the Fund projects non-oil growth of about seven per cent annually over the next five years, with the external position remaining strong as new oil fields come onstream.
