Recent Posts
February 28, 2026
February 28, 2026
Brent crude jumped 10 per cent to about US$80 a barrel over the counter on Sunday, oil traders said, while analysts predicted prices could climb as high as US$100 after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran plunged the Middle East into a new war.
The global oil benchmark has rallied this year and reached US$73 a barrel on Friday, its highest level since July, buoyed by growing concern over potential attacks that materialised a day later. Futures trading is closed over the weekend.
“While the military attacks are themselves supportive of oil prices, the key factor here is the closing of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS.
Most tanker owners, oil majors and trading houses have suspended crude oil, fuel and liquefied natural gas shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, trade sources said, after Tehran warned ships against transiting the waterway. More than 20 per cent of global oil supplies move through the Strait of Hormuz.
“We expect prices to open (after the weekend) much closer to US$100 a barrel and perhaps exceed that level if we see a prolonged outage of the Strait,” Parmar said.
Middle East leaders have warned Washington that a war with Iran could push oil prices above US$100 a barrel, RBC analyst Helima Croft said. Rabobank analysts were slightly less bullish, seeing prices holding above US$90 a barrel in the near term.
The OPEC+ group of oil producers agreed on Sunday to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) from April, a modest increase representing less than 0.2 per cent of global demand.
While some alternative infrastructure could be used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, its closure would still result in a loss of 8 million to 10 million bpd of crude oil supply, even after diverting some flows through Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and Abu Dhabi’s pipeline, said Rystad Energy economist Jorge Leon.
Rystad expects prices to rise by US$20 to about US$92 a barrel when trade opens.
The Iran crisis has also prompted Asian governments and refiners to assess oil stockpiles, alternative shipping routes and supplies. Kpler analysts said in a webinar on Sunday that India may turn to Russian oil to offset potential Middle East supply losses. (Reuters)
