Maduro’s fall defuses border-conflict risk for oil-rich Guyana

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is escorted, as he heads to an initial court appearance (ABC News)

(Bloomberg) Guyana, home to the world’s biggest oil discovery in decades, appears to be an early beneficiary of US President Donald Trump’s ouster of Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro.

The overnight raid by US forces a week ago to apprehend Maduro also virtually neutralised the longstanding threat the Venezuelan government posed to Guyanese sovereignty.

Tensions between the South American neighbours date back to the 19th century. Exxon Mobil Corp.’s massive oil discoveries off Guyana’s coast a decade ago spurred Maduro to reignite a century-old border controversy.

Although his threats to annex two-thirds of Guyanese territory failed to impede Exxon’s crude operations, they heightened the physical and financial risks for companies contemplating oil exploration in the area.

For now, at least, Maduro’s capture puts an end to the South American nation’s territorial claims over its smaller neighbour, according to analysts including Dan Pickering, chief investment officer at Houston investment bank Pickering Energy Partners LP.

“It substantially lowers the geopolitical risk for Guyana of any future conflict with Venezuela,” said says Amy Myers Jaffe, director of New York University’s Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab. It’s possible that the border dispute was “a major factor in US thinking about how to handle Venezuela”.
Venezuela and Guyana are a study in contrasts. The former was once an oil-exporting heavyweight with a thriving economy to match, before its energy sector was brought low during two decades-plus of mismanagement and corruption under Maduro and his predecessor, President Hugo Chavez. Meanwhile, within the space of several years, Guyana — a much smaller nation, initially far poorer but also more politically stable — developed the world’s fastest-growing economy as Exxon and other international operators flocked to its offshore oil reserves.

Guyana President Irfaan Ali welcomed the US ouster of Maduro that he said reaffirmed Trump’s commitment to “regional security.”

Maduro, who is incarcerated in New York to stand trial on drug, conspiracy and weapons charges, sought to revive a 19th-century dispute with the UK over the Essequibo region that includes much of modern-day Guyana.

The question was settled in the UK’s favour in an 1899 arbitration ruling that set the boundaries for Guyana, which gained independence in 1966. In response to Maduro’s belligerence, Guyana asked the International Court of Justice to affirm the 1899 award.

The threat of annexation, however, prompted Guyana officials to hold off on exploration approvals in waters near the Venezuelan line in recent years.

“The risk-adjusted returns have gotten better in Guyana because Venezuela’s not going to be messing with them anymore,” Pickering said. “Guyana wins even if there’s not a single change” in actual oil production.

Exxon operates Guyana’s Stabroek Block and owns a 45 per cent stake. Chevron Corp. and China’s CNOOC Ltd. hold 30 per cent and 25 per cent interests, respectively.

“Future disputes around offshore Guyana oil that carry implications for Exxon and Chevron are mitigated on the margin,” analysts at TD Cowen wrote in a January 5 note to clients.