Guyana, Brazil and Argentina lead next wave of non-OPEC oil production

Oil from offshore Brazil, Guyana, Suriname, and Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale play will be key sources of cost-competitive non-OPEC oil supply through 2030, Rystad Energy has predicted.
Rystad forecasts that global liquids demand will peak in the 2030s at around 107 million barrels per day (bpd), maintain a plateau above 100 million bpd through the 2040s, and decline to around 75 million bpd by 2050.
According to the Norwegian energy consultancy, non-OPEC+ supply will be critical to balancing the global market, with cheap oil from South America helping to offset slower US shale growth. Non-OPEC+ producers are expected to account for around 5.9 million bpd, or nearly 60 per cent, of new conventional oil currently under development through 2030. South America will be the main source of this growth at 560,000 bpd of crude and condensate, with North America supplying roughly 480,000 bpd.
Radhika Bansal, VP of Upstream Research at Rystad Energy, said today’s producing wells are on track to deliver less than half of their current output by 2030, reinforcing the need for sustained investment in both new and mature fields. Undeveloped and discovered assets will continue to play a key role in meeting global supply needs through the mid-2030s. While the market could briefly tip into oversupply, Bansal cautioned that “above-surface risks could trigger delays in project timelines.” She added that South America’s deepwater track record positions it well to provide competitive barrels globally, with continued investment needed as the supply gap is expected to widen after the mid-2030s.
Brazil is a leading source of production growth, especially from its prolific offshore ultra-deepwater pre-salt oil fields, which boast low break-even costs. Major investments are being made, with several new Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) units scheduled to come online this year. Brazil’s offshore oil production is a major driver of its economy, with production primarily from pre-salt fields like Lula and Búzios, operated mostly by state-owned Petrobras. The country has set new production records and continues to increase output through the development of new platforms and exploration in deepwater fields, though it faces regulatory and infrastructural challenges. The Lula Field is one of Brazil’s most significant offshore projects, with estimated reserves of 8.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe); Búzios Field achieved a record 800,000 bpd in February 2025, with more platforms being added to increase capacity.
Guyana’s oil production has surged, surpassing 770,000 bpd as of October 2025, primarily from the ExxonMobil-led consortium’s projects in the Stabroek Block. This increase was driven by the start-up of the Yellowtail development, the fourth floating production vessel (FPSO). Guyana is expected to hit 900,000 bpd once the fourth facility is fully operational, with a long-term goal of producing over one million barrels per day as projects like Uaru and Whiptail come online in 2026 and 2027. Exxon projects that Guyana could be producing nearly 1.3 million bpd by 2027, making it one of the most prolific per capita producers globally.
Meanwhile, Vaca Muerta shale oil production in Argentina has surged 26 per cent year-on-year to over 447,000 bpd, now accounting for the majority of the country’s total oil output, according to Rystad Energy. Vaca Muerta is one of the world’s largest unconventional oil reserves, estimated at 16.2 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Production has been boosted by significant investment, lowering lifting costs in main production areas and increasing productivity. Positive investor sentiment and infrastructure development remain crucial for growth, exemplified by companies reversing exit decisions and Norway’s Equinor returning to the play. Equinor and Shell Plc acquired a 49 per cent stake in the Bandurria Sur block from Schlumberger in 2020, following initial entry in 2017 and a subsequent agreement with YPF to develop the Bajo del Toro block.
However, the basin is showing signs of slowing, particularly in drilling activity due to saturated takeaway capacity. Natural gas is increasingly taking the spotlight, with dry gas production reaching 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) in Q1 2025, up 16 per cent year-on-year. According to Rystad, Argentina is “…pursuing a bold, multi-phase national LNG export strategy, meaning Argentina could soon become a pivotal player in global gas supply, significantly reshaping markets and energy geopolitics.” (oilprice.com)